The Pandemic Baby Bust and the Acceleration of Population Decline

As much of the world shut down in favor of 14 days to flatten the curve. Many predictions were given that nine months later, our hospitals would reach capacity in a different way from a shut down inspired baby boom. The logic went that more time stuck inside with significant others would result in a much needed influx of children being born. 

The numbers are in, and sadly, their predicted baby boom has been a complete and devastating bust. 

It is impossible for a society to hide from demographics. Their effects can be limited for a time, but ultimately the numbers bear results. Much of the developed world has been teetering on the precipice of demographic disaster, as birth rates have dropped to a shockingly low level. Replacement level is often given as 2.1 children per woman. Anything below that amount in the population will decrease unless offset by increased immigration. 

In 2006, Marc Stein sounded the alarm in an article featured in McClain's. The Salient Feature of Europe, Canada, Japan and Russia, that is, that they're running out of babies. What's happening in the developed world is one of the fastest demographic evolutions in history. Demographic decline and the unsustainability of the social democratic state are closely related. This problem is greatly amplified by the tremendous debt nations are accumulating to combat the effects of the current pandemic. 

A nation going into debt is often described as placing the burden of payment on future generations. However, the fewer there are in those generations, the greater the portion of debt each individual will have to bear. Even the most populous nation on Earth is discovering that declining birth rates result in dangerous circumstances. Analysts estimate that the country's labor force will lose 35 million workers over the next five years, and that during the same period, the number of citizens eligible for retirement will surge to more than 300 million. 

That's almost the entire population of the United States. China is realizing that the challenge of demographics must be dealt with. However, it would be naive to think that China is the only nation facing this issue. In Canada, along with many other developed nations. This problem has been growing for decades. Despite some fluctuations, the total fertility rate in Canada has been below the replacement level for over 40 years. 

In fact, 1971 was the last year the replacement level fertility of 2.1 children per woman was achieved, meaning that couples on average had produced enough children to replace themselves. As of 2019, Canada was more than half a child short, at 1.47 children per woman. A baby boom seems to be exactly what the demographer ordered. Amidst the challenges and many consequences of the pandemic, could there be a silver lining in Baby Boom to stem the tide of our demographic demise? 

Sadly, the opposite of what many predicted has become the reality. The baby boom has become a staggering baby bust. Canada's population growth has dropped to its lowest level since 1946, according to the Brookings Institute. The United States could see between 300,000 and 500,000 fewer births in 2021. With financial concerns being a major factor for most households. The increase in alone time has not resulted in a baby boom. 

The National Post reported an interesting change in behavior observed during the pandemic. The ovulation and pregnancy test company Stix found in a limited survey that 56% of customers who purchased tests during the months of March and April 2020 were trying not to get pregnant, compared to pre-COVID times when the majority were trying to start or extend their family. 

Legal forms of immigration have also come to a grinding halt in many nations, escalating the concerns. Immigration policies can be an extremely political topic, and the purpose of this video is not to present current policies in either a positive or negative light. But the reality is that declining birth rates will only draw greater focus on an already complex issue. 

There is no doubt that the change in demographics will be a driving force behind policy decisions concerning immigration spending and taxation in the coming decades. For further analysis on the result of declining populations, watch viewpoint presenter Stuart Wachowicz in his Tomorrow's World telecast fewer babies the death of a way of life.